In 2024, America’s 67 million Social Security recipients will technically get a raise, but the boost to their benefits will be so marginal that the gain will feel more like a loss.
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Legislation from 1973 provides for annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) designed to preserve the purchasing power of Social Security benefits as inflation drives up prices over time. The faster prices rise, the more the SSA increases the yearly COLA.
However, the agency’s method for calculating the adjustments has advocates worried that the coming year’s increase will leave many recipients struggling to do more with less.
COLAs Keep Benefits on Pace With Inflation — Technically
In 2023, the SSA authorized a hefty 8.7% COLA, the largest increase in 40 years, to offset an equally historic rise in inflation. The inflation rate fell toward normal levels in the ensuing year — but that does not mean prices fell, too. They just rose less quickly.
The result is what The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) predicts will be a 3.2% COLA in 2024, a nearly two-thirds reduction over 2023. The SSA will announce its final decision in mid-October.
In May, when the TSCL predicted a 3.1% increase, the nonpartisan organization released a report concluding that, despite annual COLAs, Social Security benefits have lost 36% of their purchasing power since 2000.
Warning: Don’t Claim Social Security Benefits Until You Reach This Milestone
Inaccurate Criteria Don’t Reflect the Realities on the Ground
The SSA uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to determine COLAs, but that index excludes crucial retirement expenses like Medicare Part B and D premiums. The result is that every $100 in benefits from 2000 buys just $64 worth of goods and services today.
Also, the SSA calculates COLAs based solely on third-quarter price increases. Inflation slowed considerably this July, August and September, but the assessment doesn’t account for the previous months, when prices rose at a much faster clip. The result is that boomers could experience a 50% decrease in their benefits’ real-world purchasing power in 2024.
Cuts Are Coming — Prepare Now
If Social Security is just one element of a healthy retirement income portfolio — as it should be — revising your budget to account for a slimmed-down COLA should be enough to prepare for 2024.