Last week’s news that Social Security benefits could be slashed sooner than expected set off alarm bells for Americans whose retirement plans have already been disrupted by COVID-19. But financial experts say it’s not time to panic. And this week, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen stated that one risk of the ongoing government standoff about the debt ceiling, which may result in a shutdown, could be that, “nearly 50 million seniors could stop receiving Social Security checks for a time.”
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A report from Social Security and Medicare trustees said benefits will have to be cut by 2034 — a year earlier than previously projected — if Congress doesn’t address the program’s long-term funding shortfall. If Congress does nothing, the combined trust funds for Social Security will only be able to pay 78% in promised benefits to retirees and disabled beneficiaries. Some news reports put the percentage closer to 75%.
There’s no mystery as to why the funds are disappearing sooner than expected. Look no further than last year’s economic downturn caused by the pandemic, which contributed to a big drop in employment that resulted in declining revenue from payroll taxes.
But just because benefits might have to be reduced early doesn’t mean Social Security funds are running out, as some fear. That’s not likely to happen, according to Monotelo Advisors, a Chicago-based financial and tax planning firm.
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On its website, Monotelo said that if the only funds available to Social Security by the middle of next decade are the current wage taxes being paid in, then the Social Security Administration would still be able to pay around three-quarters of promised benefits.
“While a 25% reduction in benefits could significantly hurt the retirement plans of those who are relying on their Social Security benefits, it is far less damaging then the program being shut down entirely,” Monotelo said.
Scott Thoma, retirement strategist at Edward Jones, offered a similar take in an email to GOBankingRates, saying that just because the Social Security reserves might be depleted one year earlier than expected, it doesn’t necessarily mean Social Security is going bankrupt.
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