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As you might know, Smart Parking Limited (ASX:SPZ) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at AU$54m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 30%, coming in at just AU$0.011 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Smart Parking after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Smart Parking
Following the latest results, Smart Parking's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$68.1m in 2025. This would be a substantial 25% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 113% to AU$0.023. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$67.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.026 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at AU$0.60, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Smart Parking analyst has a price target of AU$0.75 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$0.35. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Smart Parking's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Smart Parking's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 25% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 20% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Smart Parking is expected to grow much faster than its industry.