By Michael Erman

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Health experts are seeing signs of a much smaller wave of U.S. COVID-19 cases this winter than in previous years, which could put additional pressure on Pfizer (PFE) to find growth from its non-COVID treatments.

Pfizer, which reports financial results on Tuesday, has been under pressure from investors looking for an improved performance from its other products, such as its cancer drugs, to make up for COVID sales, which have crashed from their pandemic peak of close to $60 billion in revenue.

Investors have yet to be convinced. The stock is trading at around $26.50 - less than half its pandemic-era highs.

COVID products are still a profit driver for the company. Pfizer is forecast by Wall Street to report $5.3 billion in 2024 sales of its COVID antiviral treatment Paxlovid. They are expected to drop by about 25% in 2025.

Sales of Paxlovid and the COVID vaccine are expected to account for 16% of Pfizer's total revenue, estimated to be around $63 billion for 2024, falling to 13% of 2025 revenue, according to analyst estimates.

"They still had a pretty significant contribution of both vaccine and Paxlovid in the guidance. So I think there probably is some risk to that," said Jeff Jonas, portfolio manager for Gabelli Funds, which held about $50 million of Pfizer shares as of September.

Analysts expect earnings of 47 cents per share on $17.4 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter, according to LSEG data, both improvements from a year ago.

BMO Capital markets analyst Evan Seigerman said Pfizer's forecast is already conservative, and with COVID products no longer seen as a core business, investor reaction to lower volumes could be muted.

Chief Executive Albert Bourla, when he provided company forecasts in December, said Pfizer was still expecting a new wave of infections at the end of 2024 and into 2025, as it has seen in previous years.

But the COVID wave this winter has barely materialized, according to the latest data.

U.S. data on emergency department visits with diagnosed COVID-19 through Jan. 21, suggests that cases dropped significantly over the first three weeks of the year.

According to that data, cases peaked around Jan. 1, when about 1.4% of emergency department patient visits resulted in a COVID-19 diagnosis, far less than a year ago, when the diagnosis rate was 3.4%.

'Waiting for another variant'

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has not updated its COVID data since the administration of President Donald Trump ordered health officials to pause public communications.