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To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. Although, when we looked at Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Union Pacific:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.17 = US$10b ÷ (US$65b - US$5.7b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).
So, Union Pacific has an ROCE of 17%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty normal return, and it's somewhat close to the Transportation industry average of 15%.
View our latest analysis for Union Pacific
In the above chart we have measured Union Pacific's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Union Pacific here for free.
What Does the ROCE Trend For Union Pacific Tell Us?
Things have been pretty stable at Union Pacific, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. Businesses with these traits tend to be mature and steady operations because they're past the growth phase. So don't be surprised if Union Pacific doesn't end up being a multi-bagger in a few years time. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that Union Pacific has been paying out a decent 43% of its earnings to shareholders. Given the business isn't reinvesting in itself, it makes sense to distribute a portion of earnings among shareholders.
Our Take On Union Pacific's ROCE
We can conclude that in regards to Union Pacific's returns on capital employed and the trends, there isn't much change to report on. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 67% over the last five years. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.
If you'd like to know about the risks facing Union Pacific, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.