All signs are pointing to a 'tough year' for Chinese businesses
All signs are pointing to a 'tough year' for Chinese businesses · CNBC

In This Article:

  • Thomas Gatley, corporate analyst at Gavekal in Beijing, says there aren't many bright spots in his analysis of the latest Chinese earnings reports.

  • One of Beijing's strategies for boosting growth is increasing the availability of financing to privately run companies. 

  • However, opening the financing spigots — whether from banks or private firms — doesn't necessarily translate into a sustainable turnaround in growth since it is difficult to determine which companies have a viable business structure.

Judging by the latest reports from China companies, the world's second-largest economy still has a challenging stretch ahead.

Take earnings reports in the last few weeks from the country's technology giants:

  • Search engine Baidu BIDU posted its first quarterly loss since listing in 2005 , according to Reuters.

  • Gaming and social media company Tencent 700-HK reported its slowest quarterly revenue growth on record , up 16%, according to Reuters. That's despite a boost in revenue from its financial technology and cloud businesses.

  • Alibaba posted solid growth for the latest quarter. But excluding acquisition costs, Alibaba's BABA  2019 fiscal year revenue grew 39% , missing last year's forecast . For the 12 months ahead, the e-commerce company expects revenue growth of at least 33%.

Then on Monday, China's National Bureau of Statistics said industrial profits fell 3.4% in the first four months of this year.

"There's not a lot of stuff that looks particularly bright, frankly," Thomas Gatley, corporate analyst at investment research firm Gavekal in Beijing, said in an interview last week about his review of the latest earnings season. "It's going to be a tough year."

Since last summer, the Chinese government has announced a slew of measures to stimulate growth. While those have kept the situation from getting much worse, it's not clear whether they've been enough to spur the economy in a major way. The country faces a host of unresolved internal problems — not to mention growing pressure from its largest trade partner, the U.S.

In Morgan Stanley's assessment of companies in the MSCI China index, analysts said earlier this month that some quarterly results did beat expectations for the first time in at least 12 months. But they were cautious about the road ahead, "given the reescalation of trade tension between the U.S. and China, together with the recent macro weakness reflected by the April data."

Challenges for privately run companies

One of Beijing's strategies for boosting growth is increasing the availability of financing to privately run companies.