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Shell plc (LON:SHEL) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. Shell missed earnings this time around, with US$284b revenue coming in 2.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.53 also fell short of expectations by 18%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Shell after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Shell
Following last week's earnings report, Shell's 18 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$279.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 42% to US$3.74. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$276.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.71 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at UK£32.60. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shell at UK£36.65 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£29.79. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 2.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Shell's revenues are expected to shrink slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Shell's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£32.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.