Big tech, oil extend Wall Street's mid-summer rebound

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By Lawrence Delevingne

(Reuters) -U.S. stocks extended their mid-summer rebound https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/nasdaq-futures-surge-apple-amazon-hold-out-against-weak-consumer-spending-2022-07-29 on Friday, with the dollar and some longer-term Treasury yields dipping, as Wall Street cheered positive corporate news in spite of increased labor costs and other indicators of continued inflation.

Positive forecasts from Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc showed resilience in giant companies to survive an economic downturn, while energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp posted record revenue on Friday https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-giants-exxon-chevron-post-blowout-earnings-ramp-up-buybacks-2022-07-29, bolstered by surging crude oil and natural gas prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose around 1%, the S&P 500 gained about 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite added nearly 2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now posted their biggest monthly percentage gains since 2020.

Still, U.S. labor costs increased strongly in the second quarter as a tight jobs market continued to boost wage growth, which could keep inflation elevated.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, also rose 1.1% last month, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday.

As inflation surges across major markets and central bankers scramble to raise rates without killing off growth, riskier markets like stocks have tended to react positively to any perceived softening in sentiment on the part of policymakers.

After Thursday data showed the U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter, stocks rose as traders bet rates would rise more slowly. Euro zone numbers on Friday, meanwhile, beat expectations, yet recession fears are mounting as energy inflation continues to bite in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"Our view is that earnings for all equity classes likely will peak in 2022 and move lower as the economy weakens, revenue growth stalls and input costs remain elevated," strategists with the Wells Fargo Investment Institute wrote in a note on Thursday.

The MSCI World index gained about 1.2%, on course for its best month since November 2020, buoyed by broad gains across European markets, with the STOXX Europe 600 up around 1.3%.

Despite the positive end to the month for stocks, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said investors should proceed with caution, noting: "In the near term, we think the risk-reward for broad equity indexes will be muted. Equities are pricing in a 'soft landing,' yet the risk of a deeper 'slump' in economic activity is elevated."