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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. That downside risk was realized by Viva Leisure Limited (ASX:VVA) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 32%. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 4.0%. The silver lining (for longer term investors) is that the stock is still 30% higher than it was three years ago. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 29% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 13% in the same timeframe.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Viva Leisure
Given that Viva Leisure didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last year Viva Leisure saw its revenue grow by 51%. That's a strong result which is better than most other loss making companies. Given the revenue growth, the share price drop of 32% seems quite harsh. Our sympathies to shareholders who are now underwater. Prima facie, revenue growth like that should be a good thing, so it's worth checking whether losses have stabilized. Our monkey brains haven't evolved to think exponentially, so humans do tend to underestimate companies that have exponential growth.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
This free interactive report on Viva Leisure's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
A Different Perspective
Viva Leisure shareholders are down 32% for the year, falling short of the market return. The market shed around 4.0%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. Investors are up over three years, booking 10% per year, much better than the more recent returns. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Viva Leisure , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.