After announcing healthy earnings, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NCSM) stock rose over the last week. While the headline numbers were strong, we found some underlying problems once we started looking at what drove earnings.

View our latest analysis for NCS Multistage Holdings

A Closer Look At NCS Multistage Holdings' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to September 2024, NCS Multistage Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of 0.46. That means it didn't generate anywhere near enough free cash flow to match its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, it produced free cash flow of US$6.9m during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of US$42.8m. At this point we should mention that NCS Multistage Holdings did manage to increase its free cash flow in the last twelve months However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that NCS Multistage Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that NCS Multistage Holdings' profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$40m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. NCS Multistage Holdings had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.