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Reckon Limited (ASX:RKN) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the reality of under-performance over the last twelve months. After all, the share price is down 56% in the last year, significantly under-performing the market.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for Reckon
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Unfortunately Reckon reported an EPS drop of 51% for the last year. This proportional reduction in earnings per share isn't far from the 56% decrease in the share price. Given the lower EPS we might have expected investors to lose confidence in the stock, but that doesn't seemed to have happened. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Reckon's TSR for the last 1 year was -20%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Reckon shareholders are down 20% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 4.6%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 6% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Reckon better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Reckon is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...