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Noodles & Company (NASDAQ:NDLS) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 125% in the last quarter. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 78% in the last three years. So it sure is nice to see a bit of an improvement. Only time will tell if the company can sustain the turnaround.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
Check out our latest analysis for Noodles
Because Noodles made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, Noodles saw its revenue grow by 1.2% per year, compound. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. But the share price crash at 21% per year does seem a bit harsh! We generally don't try to 'catch the falling knife'. Of course, revenue growth is nice but generally speaking the lower the profits, the riskier the business - and this business isn't making steady profits.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Noodles in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Noodles shareholders are down 37% for the year, but the market itself is up 14%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Noodles has 5 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit concerning) we think you should know about.