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As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. We regret to report that long term NetScout Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTCT) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 34% in three years, versus a market return of about 26%. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 9.7% in a month. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 6.2% in the same time.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
We know that NetScout Systems has been profitable in the past. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn't reliably profitable. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
We think that the revenue decline over three years, at a rate of 3.4% per year, probably had some shareholders looking to sell. And that's not surprising, since it seems unlikely that EPS growth can continue for long in the absence of revenue growth.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for NetScout Systems in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Investors in NetScout Systems had a tough year, with a total loss of 1.0%, against a market gain of about 9.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 1.8% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand NetScout Systems better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for NetScout Systems you should be aware of.