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It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. That downside risk was realized by Medibank Private Limited (ASX:MPL) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 11%. That's well below the market decline of 1.9%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 8.7% in that time. In the last ninety days we've seen the share price slide 14%.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
See our latest analysis for Medibank Private
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Unfortunately Medibank Private reported an EPS drop of 11% for the last year. We note that the 11% share price drop is very close to the EPS drop. So it seems that the market sentiment has not changed much, despite the weak results. Instead, the change in the share price seems to reduction in earnings per share, alone.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Medibank Private's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Medibank Private's TSR for the last 1 year was -7.8%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Medibank Private shareholders are down 7.8% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.9%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Medibank Private better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Medibank Private is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...