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The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Cedar Woods Properties Limited (ASX:CWP), since the last five years saw the share price fall 33%.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
See our latest analysis for Cedar Woods Properties
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years over which the share price declined, Cedar Woods Properties' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 4.2% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 8% per year, over the period. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 10.92.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Cedar Woods Properties has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Cedar Woods Properties' TSR for the last 5 years was -15%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Cedar Woods Properties shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 24% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 3% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Cedar Woods Properties you should be aware of.