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For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (NYSE:BRSP) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 56% over a half decade. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 6.6%. However, this move may have been influenced by the broader market, which fell 4.0% in that time.
Since BrightSpire Capital has shed US$54m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for BrightSpire Capital
Because BrightSpire Capital made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
In the last five years BrightSpire Capital saw its revenue shrink by 6.9% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. The share price decline of 9% compound, over five years, is understandable given the company is losing money, and revenue is moving in the wrong direction. We don't think anyone is rushing to buy this stock. Ultimately, it may be worth watching - should revenue pick up, the share price might follow.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, BrightSpire Capital's TSR for the last 5 years was -32%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Investors in BrightSpire Capital had a tough year, with a total loss of 11% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for BrightSpire Capital that you should be aware of before investing here.