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Even the best stock pickers will make plenty of bad investments. And there's no doubt that Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLMN) stock has had a really bad year. The share price is down a hefty 58% in that time. Notably, shareholders had a tough run over the longer term, too, with a drop of 44% in the last three years. Furthermore, it's down 30% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Bloomin' Brands
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the last year Bloomin' Brands saw its earnings per share drop below zero. Some investors no doubt dumped the stock as a result. We hope for shareholders' sake that the company becomes profitable again soon.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Bloomin' Brands' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Bloomin' Brands, it has a TSR of -56% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Bloomin' Brands shareholders are down 56% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Bloomin' Brands (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.