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As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Bell Financial Group Limited (ASX:BFG) shareholders, since the share price is down 32% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 21%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
See our latest analysis for Bell Financial Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Bell Financial Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 14% per year, over the last three years. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 12% per year. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. It seems like the share price is reflecting the declining earnings per share.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
This free interactive report on Bell Financial Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Bell Financial Group's TSR for the last 3 years was -18%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Bell Financial Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 26% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 12% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bell Financial Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Bell Financial Group that you should be aware of.