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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term AtriCure, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATRC) shareholders, since the share price is down 40% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 34%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 25% in the last 90 days. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.
Since AtriCure has shed US$190m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
Because AtriCure made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, AtriCure saw its revenue grow by 17% per year, compound. That's a pretty good rate of top-line growth. Shareholders have seen the share price fall at 12% per year, for three years. So the market has definitely lost some love for the stock. With revenue growing at a solid clip, now might be the time to focus on the possibility that it will have a brighter future.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on AtriCure
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that AtriCure shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over the last year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 5% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for AtriCure you should be aware of.