(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries are on track for their worst month in more than two years amid signs of economic strength, posturing for next week’s US presidential election and heavy supply of new notes and bonds.
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US government debt was briefly buoyed Tuesday by a surprise slide in job openings that was then offset by a jump in consumer confidence. Despite generally stronger-than-expected economic data since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in mid-September, traders are clinging to wagers on a quarter-point reduction at next week’s Fed meeting.
The recent rout had shaved 2.4% off a key gauge of Treasuries in October as of Monday’s close. That puts the market on track for its worst monthly performance since September 2022 as traders grapple with a slew of risks associated with economic indicators, the Treasury debt supply outlook, the election and the Fed’s next policy announcement.
“There’s still a good deal of information for the market to digest in the coming days and weeks,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. “Sentiment feels fragile.”
The selloff has lifted yields by some 60 basis points this month and driven a measure of term premium toward the highest since last year. The ICE BofA Move Index — a gauge of volatility that tracks anticipated swings in yields based on options — reached a 2024 peak, showing investors expect little relief from the turbulence.
Yields rose further Tuesday ahead of the third auction of fixed-rate Treasury debt this week, a $44 billion seven-year note sale that followed tepid demand for two- and five-year note auctions on Monday. The selloff abated after the seven-year notes drew a lower-than-anticipated yield, a sign of good demand. Late in New York, Treasury yields were about 1 basis point lower out to five years and close to flat for longer-dated benchmarks.
Still, the auction schedule is unusually congested, with sales of three-, 10- and 30-year debt ahead next week, giving investors reason to be cautious. The Treasury is set to announce the size of next week’s debt sales on Wednesday, just days ahead of October employment data at the end of the week.
Tuesday’s yield peaks were the highest since early August for the two-year, while the 10-year reached a level last seen in early July.