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Bitcoin’s meteoric rise over the past 15 years has turned many skeptics into believers.
But could it ever reach the heights predicted by early pioneer Hal Finney, who speculated that BTC could one day be worth over $10 million per coin?
In 2009, Finney, one of Bitcoin’s earliest adopters, ran a theoretical calculation to estimate Bitcoin’s long-term value. He assumed that if Bitcoin were to become the dominant global currency or a key store of value, its total market capitalization would need to match the world’s total wealth.
At the time, he estimated global wealth to be in the range of $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With Bitcoin’s supply capped at 21 million, dividing these figures results in potential price points of $4.7 million to $14.2 million per BTC. Factoring in future economic growth and inflation, some estimates push this number above $22 million per BTC.
Hal Finney was one of the first people to believe in Bitcoin. On January 12, 2009, he received the first-ever Bitcoin transaction — 10 BTC — from Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. This made him one of the earliest adopters of the cryptocurrency.
Finney worked closely with Nakamoto, helping to improve Bitcoin’s code and testing its early versions. Some people even thought he might be Satoshi himself, but Finney always denied it.
How realistic is this prediction?
For Bitcoin to reach such astronomical figures, it would need to displace gold, fiat currencies, and other assets as the world’s ultimate store of value.
Institutional adoption, sovereign wealth fund allocations, and global economic shifts would have to drive its market capitalization into the hundreds of trillions. However, Bitcoin’s relatively small market cap of $1.9 trillion in 2024 suggests it still has a long way to go.
Strategy's Saylor predicts Bitcoin at $13 million
Podcaster Patrick Bet-David challenged Michael Saylor on MicroStrategy's long-term value, suggesting the company could grow into a $10 trillion giant if Bitcoin reaches $13 million per coin.
In a Nov. 19, 2024, podcast, Bet-David calculated that if Bitcoin adoption jumps from 0.1% to 7% and BTC surges from $90,000 to $13 million, MicroStrategy’s valuation could increase 144x. "If I do 144 times $73 billion, you're estimating it to be a $10.5 trillion company in 21 years. Is that correct?" he asked. Saylor agreed, saying, “With that math, yeah, Bitcoin goes from $90,000 to $13 million.”
At the time of writing, MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, has a market cap of $85.23 billion, while Bitcoin is priced at $97,500. If Bitcoin reaches $13 million, MicroStrategy's market cap could scale proportionally, exceeding $11 trillion based on the current valuation ratio.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.