Can SAP SE's (ETR:SAP) Weak Financials Pull The Plug On The Stock's Current Momentum On Its Share Price?

Unlock stock picks and a broker-level newsfeed that powers Wall Street. Upgrade Now

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Thu, Feb 20, 2025, 1:29 AM 4 min read

Most readers would already be aware that SAP's (ETR:SAP) stock increased significantly by 23% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay close attention to its weak financials as we are doubtful that the current momentum will keep up, given the scenario. Specifically, we decided to study SAP's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for SAP

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for SAP is:

6.9% = €3.2b ÷ €46b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every €1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn €0.07 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

SAP's Earnings Growth And 6.9% ROE

At first glance, SAP's ROE doesn't look very promising. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 15%. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 11% seen by SAP was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared SAP's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 9.1% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth — XTRA:SAP Past Earnings Growth February 20th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about SAP's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is SAP Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

SAP has a high three-year median payout ratio of 70% (that is, it is retaining 30% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent.

In addition, SAP has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 37% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 18%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, SAP's performance is quite a big let-down. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.