The San Diego Padres went all-in on the 2015 season and it has been a complete disaster
Cork Gaines
James Shields, San Diego Padres
(Denis Poroy/Getty Images) The Padres may soon take the ball from James Shields for good.
The San Diego Padres shocked the baseball world this past off-season with a series of trades and free-agent signings that shook up the roster, leading to what many at the time called the most improved team in the National League and a legitimate World Series contender.
Five months later, the Padres are 44-52, 10.5 games back in the NL West as of July 24, and it looks like they are going to try to trade away some of the very players they went all-in on, including pitcher James Shields, whom they signed this past winter as a free agent, as well as outfielder Justin Upton and closer Craig Kimbrel, who both came via trades.
The problem for the Padres now is not just the amount they paid up front in terms of salaries and prospects and the little return they have seen so far, but it is how they went about it.
When the Padres traded for Matt Kemp, they received $32 million from the Dodgers to offset some of the $107 million remaining on Kemp's deal. However, instead of spreading that money over the five years left on the contract, the Padres received $18 million up front. That meant the Padres would only owe Kemp $3 million this year but at the same time they would have to pay him $18 million per year for the next four years.
Likewise with Shields' contract, the Padres are paying him just $10 million this season with his salary jumping to $21 million each of the next three years.
Matt Kemp
(AP) The Padres don't really have to start paying Matt Kemp until next year.
Despite adding a ton of expensive players — including little-used Melvin Upton whose contract (three years, $46.4 million) the Padres had to take in order to trade for Kimbrel— the payroll this season only jumped from ~$91 million to ~$108 million.
The feeling was that the Padres were going all-in for the 2015 season which would generate not only a playoff team, hopefully, but also a lot more revenue due to fan excitement to pay for the payroll, which will go way up next season.
But things have gone so horribly wrong that the Padres not only still owe players like Kemp and Upton more than they are worth for the next several years, they are probably going to lose millions trading away Shields.
By back-loading Shields' deal, he is going to be grossly overpaid the next few years, to the tune of three years, $65 million. As Buster Olney pointed out on his "Baseball Tonight" podcast, no team would pay that much in free agency for a pitcher like Shields, who will be 34 next season.
“I had one executive say to me, with another team, 'if James Shields was a free agent in the fall, what would you give him?' And the estimates I heard from this general manager were in the range of three years, $45 million. I heard more like three (years) for $36 (million), three (years) for $39 (million) from some other agents and executives. So what that means is that if the Padres actually decide to trade James Shields they might have to conceivably eat some money, because I don't think anybody would, for a pitcher who has an ERA on the road over 5.00 this year and is going to be 34 next season, be willing to pay three years and $65 million.”
If a team wouldn't do that in free agency they certainly are not going to pay that much and give up prospects. In other words, the Padres will have to eat at least $20 million of the money still owed to Shields and maybe more if they actually want good prospects in return.
Olney also notes that trading Kimbrel is problematic because there are a ton of other closers available, which will drive down the prices.
In the end, the Padres may be able to unload some of the contracts they took on last winter, and they may be able to recoup some of the lost prospects in the form of new prospects. But at the very least, they lost an entire year in the rebuilding process as they are going to have to hit the reset button, and it will cost them millions to do so.
And all of this doesn't include the long-term impact of scaring away future free agents who are looking to settle in one place for several years. The players and agents will see what is happening to Shields and others and, at the very least, they will hesitate.
