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Safe Bulkers, Inc. (NYSE:SB) shareholders have seen the share price descend 12% over the month. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 200% in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 32% drop, in the last year.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, Safe Bulkers managed to grow its earnings per share at 82% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 25% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 3.87 also suggests market apprehension.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Safe Bulkers has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Safe Bulkers will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Safe Bulkers' TSR for the last 5 years was 254%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Safe Bulkers had a tough year, with a total loss of 29% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 7.4%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 29% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Safe Bulkers has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.