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Well, well, well. If it isn't Russian energy moving markets again. I'm Phil Rosen, coming to you from Los Angeles.
Moscow is tapering gas flows to Europe for the Nth time since the war began. Today we're going over what's happening, and why there's sure to be more developments to come.
Let's break it down.
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1. Russia's Gazprom slashed Nord Stream 1 gas flows again. It's been less than a week since the key pipeline restarted after maintenance.
Starting Wednesday, the state-run energy giant said it would decrease flows to 20%, after it already had been moving at only 40% before that.
The pipeline had restarted on Thursday after shutting down for 10 days for retooling, and European officials accused Moscow of weaponizing energy in retaliation for wartime sanctions.
Gazprom said Monday that a second turbine would be removed for maintenance, though Germany said there's no technical reason for a reduction in flows.
Natural gas futures in Europe spiked 10% when the news broke Monday.
All the while, Russian oil exports have fallen for five straight weeks. Those cargoes are down 13% since mid-June as customers in Asia are easing up on buying.
A rolling four-week average shows that shipments are down by 480,000 barrels a day since the middle of last month, per Bloomberg data. As a result, Moscow's revenue from export duties fell from $168 million to $155 million.
It's worth noting that Asia's biggest oil refiner dialed back its purchases of Russian crude, since it's unwilling to match the higher prices that customers in India and elsewhere are offering.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that Russia's crude shipments to China and India have plunged 30% from their wartime peaks.
In other news:
2. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, as the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting begins. The Fed's interest rates decision is due tomorrow, and investors are anticipating another 75-basis point hike. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On the docket: Microsoft Corp., Alphabet, and McDonald's Corp., all reporting.
4. Goldman Sachs is recommending this batch of stocks to profit from their still-expanding returns. Certain companies still have gains ahead even as returns on equity may have peaked, according to the bank's analysts. See their 17 names here.
5. The Fed will eventually choose propping up growth over fighting inflation, according to BlackRock. And the top asset manager predicts the central bank will cut rates next year after a stretch of overtightening. "We expect more volatility, so we focus on nimble, tactical positioning."