RPT-Temporary layoff schemes no cure-all in slow COVID recovery

In This Article:

(Repeats Sunday's story without changes)

* Temporary layoffs reduce company costs, prop up economy

* Costly schemes only realistic for matter of months

* Belgium study shows a fifth of workers on scheme could lose jobs

* Permanent shifts to economy likely from COVID-19

By Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS, May 17 (Reuters) - Temporary unemployment schemes operating across Europe could struggle to save the jobs of leisure and travel sector workers facing drawn-out or partial recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic, even if they help industries that rebound quickly.

Short-term unemployment or furlough schemes have taken in a quarter of Britain's workforce, nearly two-thirds of those employed by France's private sector and many millions across Europe.

Championed by Germany, where it is known as kurzarbeit, the schemes typically provide at least 80% of pay for workers for whom there is no work now, but a swift return is expected after a limited period.

The schemes have spread far wider and faster than during the last major shock, the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

Raymond Torres, chief economist of the Spanish think-tank Funcas, says furlough schemes are one of the responses that have really worked in the initial management of the crisis.

"I wish the same had been done in 2009 where they were hardly used and caused unemployment to rise," he said, although he expressed concern that the scheme in Spain would only run to the end of June, with many further months of economic crisis expected.

The head of Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis gave an unsettling warning on Friday that any vaccine to fight the new coronavirus will not be ready for use for at least two years.

The layoff schemes come at a cost, though, so are temporary in nature. In Italy, for example, companies can use them for up to 18 weeks. Many elsewhere last until the end of June.

British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak says the UK bill for covering 7.5 million workers is 8 billion pounds ($9.75 billion) a month, about two-thirds of what the country spends on its health service. Sunak has warned this is not sustainable, although he extended it for a second time on Tuesday.

Even with the scheme, Britain's unemployment rate is set to more than double to 10% in the second quarter.

In France, the cost is likely far to surpass the 26 billion euros ($28.1 billion) budgeted. Labour Minister Muriel Penicaud said the government planned to lower wage reimbursements by the state from June.

PERMANENT SHIFTS TO ECONOMY

A study in Belgium released this week gave a taste of economic life after temporary layoffs end. Belgium has some 900,000 people covered by such a scheme, currently until the end of June.