(Repeats April 26 column without change)
By John Kemp
LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - China's economy has become much less energy intensive over the last 40 years as its industries have modernised and the economy has shifted towards more service sector output.
But energy intensity has flatlined for the last five years making it much harder to displace coal by renewables and meet the government's objective of capping total emissions.
China converted 1 tonne of standard coal or its equivalent in other forms of energy (including wind and solar generation) into gross domestic product worth 21,000 yuan in 2023.
Conversion of energy into economic output was essentially no more efficient than in 2018, after adjusting for inflation, according to estimates prepared by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Energy consumption has roughly tracked economic growth, rather than declining in relation to output as in other major economies.
Chartbook: China energy intensity
No other country has been more active than China in deploying huge amounts of wind and solar generation in the last few years.
Hydro, wind, solar and nuclear generation supplied 17.5% of total energy consumption in 2022 up from 13.6% in 2017.
Most of the gains have come at the expense of coal, which supplied 56% of total energy consumption down from 61% in 2017.
But economic output and energy consumption are growing so fast a smaller share has translated into more absolute use.
Unless China boosts efficiency, most extra renewables will be used to meet increasing energy requirements rather than replace coal in the next few years.
IMPROVEMENT STALLS
Before 2018, China achieved large and consistent annual reductions in energy intensity as heavy industries modernised and the economy's composition shifted from energy-intensive manufacturing to less energy-intensive services.
The share of energy-intensive primary and secondary industries in total economic output fell to 47% in 2017 down from 57% in 2007 and 65% in 1997.
The corresponding share of less energy-intensive services rose to 53% in 2017 from 43% in 2007 and 35% in 1997 (“China Statistical Yearbook”, NBS, 2023).
Some of the improvement in energy efficiency before 2018 was therefore more apparent than real, reflecting a change in the composition of output rather than better equipment and practices.
Since 2018, however, there has been no further movement away from manufacturing and towards the services sector.
Some of the stagnation likely reflects the impact of the coronavirus epidemic and the movement controls imposed in response.