Analyzing Crude Oil: Does It Have a Bottom?
Moving averages
Currently, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and Total (TOT) are trading 4.5% and 4% above their 20-day moving averages. Since February 11, Royal Dutch Shell has been in a continuous uptrend. Investors must note that most of the global markets have fallen close to February 11.
The four large-cap European (FEZ) oil and gas companies shown in the above table are trading 7.4% below their respective 100-day moving averages. In particular, Royal Dutch Shell trades 4.7% below its 100-day moving average. A month ago, it reached a 52-week low of $36.9 as of January 20, 2016. Currently, the stock trades at $45.27. The 52-week high lies around $66–$67.
Also, BP (BP) trades 8% below its 100-day moving average. Total trades 3.7% below its 100-day moving average. Currently, Eni (E) is trading 13.1% below its 100-day moving average.
Analysts’ estimates
Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates suggest a 21.1% upside for these European energy companies. You can compare that to the 3.4% upside consensus estimate for large-cap US-based (SPY) integrated companies. Over the next 12 months, BP and Royal Dutch Shell could see rises of 20% and 21%, respectively, from their current levels as of February 19, 2016.
Next, we’ll discuss the moving averages and analysts’ estimates for Canadian oil and gas companies.
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