Are Robust Financials Driving The Recent Rally In Imperial Oil Limited's (TSE:IMO) Stock?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sat, Mar 22, 2025, 6:27 AM 4 min read

Imperial Oil's (TSE:IMO) stock is up by a considerable 15% over the past three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. In this article, we decided to focus on Imperial Oil's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Imperial Oil is:

20% = CA$4.8b ÷ CA$23b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CA$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CA$0.20 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Imperial Oil

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Imperial Oil's Earnings Growth And 20% ROE

At first glance, Imperial Oil seems to have a decent ROE. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 11% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. This probably laid the ground for Imperial Oil's significant 38% net income growth seen over the past five years. We believe that there might also be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then performed a comparison between Imperial Oil's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 37% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth — TSX:IMO Past Earnings Growth March 22nd 2025

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for IMO? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Imperial Oil Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Imperial Oil's ' three-year median payout ratio is on the lower side at 23% implying that it is retaining a higher percentage (77%) of its profits. So it looks like Imperial Oil is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business, which shows in its earnings growth.

Besides, Imperial Oil has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 31% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 14%) over the same period.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that Imperial Oil's performance has been quite good. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.