Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Robert Walters plc (LON:RWA) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)
UK£22.1m
UK£33.8m
UK£31.1m
UK£29.4m
UK£28.5m
UK£28.0m
UK£27.8m
UK£27.7m
UK£27.9m
UK£28.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x3
Est @ -8.12%
Est @ -5.23%
Est @ -3.20%
Est @ -1.79%
Est @ -0.79%
Est @ -0.10%
Est @ 0.39%
Est @ 0.73%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%
UK£20.5
UK£29.2
UK£24.9
UK£22.0
UK£19.8
UK£18.0
UK£16.6
UK£15.4
UK£14.4
UK£13.5
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£194m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£469m÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= UK£225m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£420m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£4.0, the company appears quite undervalued at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
LSE:RWA Discounted Cash Flow November 13th 2023
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Robert Walters as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.028. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Robert Walters
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the British market.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Robert Walters, we've put together three further elements you should further research:
Future Earnings: How does RWA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
