Rio Tinto Group RIO reported iron ore shipments (on a 100% basis) of 70.7 million tons (Mt) for the first quarter of 2025, a 9% decline year over year. This was the lowest first-quarter shipment volume for the company since 2019, when it totaled 69.1 Mt. Iron ore production dipped 10% to 69.8 Mt. Both production and shipping were affected by four cyclones during the quarter.
Bauxite production rose 12% to a record 15 Mt in the quarter. Amrun continued to operate above nameplate capacity as the implementation of the Safe Production System drove higher plant availability and utilization rates.
Rio Tinto’s aluminum output was flat at 0.83 Mt compared with the first quarter of 2024. Stable operations and continuous improvements helped offset external challenges that impacted production at New Zealand Aluminium Smelter (NZAS) and Kitimat. Alumina production rose 3% to 1.9 Mt.
In the first quarter, mined copper production was 210 kt, 16% higher than the year-ago quarter. Production at Kennecott was 11% lower year over year due to decreased concentrate stockpiles caused by geotechnical issues. Copper production at Escondida increased 24% year over year mainly due to higher ore grade feed, driven by a change in mine sequence. Oyu Tolgoi was 42% higher year over year.
Titanium dioxide slag production declined 12% to 0.2 Mt from the year-ago quarter. Production at Iron Ore Company of Canada was 11% lower on a year-over-year basis. Output was reduced at the concentrator due to lower weight yield.
RIO’s Production Guidance for 2025
Taking into account the lost production due to bad weather in the first quarter, Rio Tinto expects Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) to be near the lower end of its prior stated band of 323-338 Mt in 2025. The range indicates a year-over-year decline of 2% to growth of 3%. Pilbara iron ore guidance remains subject to the timing of approvals for planned mining areas and heritage clearances.
Bauxite production is expected in the band of 57-59 Mt compared with 58.7 Mt in 2024. RIO cautioned that the iron ore shipments and bauxite production guidance remain subject to weather conditions. Alumina production is anticipated between 7.4 Mt and 7.8 Mt, suggesting growth from the reported output of 7.3 Mt in 2024. Aluminum production is expected to be in the band of 3.25-3.45 Mt compared with 3.3 Mt in 2024.
Rio Tinto expects copper production in the range of 780-850 kt for 2025. The company reported total copper production (mined and refined) of 792.6 kt in 2024.
Titanium dioxide slag is expected to be in the range of 1.0- 1.2 Mt.
Rio Tinto’s Cost Guidance for 2025
Rio Tinto expects Pilbara iron ore unit cash costs between $23.00 and $24.50 per ton compared with $23.00 per ton in 2024. Copper C1 unit costs are forecast between $1.30 and $1.50 per pound in 2025 compared with $1.42 in 2024.
The company maintains its capital investment plan of $11 billion for 2025.
RIO Expands Lithium Footprint With Arcadium Lithium Buy
Rio Tinto completed its previously announced acquisition of Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion on March 6, 2025. This positions RIO as a major lithium producer with one of the world’s largest lithium resource bases. The company aims to grow the capacity of its Tier 1 assets to more than 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per annum by 2028.
The company has formed Rio Tinto Lithium, combining Arcadium assets and its Rincon project.
Completion of the acquisition, however, increased Rio Tinto’s net debt by approximately $7.6 billion. This includes the $6.7 billion acquisition price and the consolidation of Arcadium’s $0.9 billion net debt.
Lithium carbonate equivalent production from Arcadium in the first quarter of 2025 was 17kt (20kt on a 100% basis). Of this, 6kt was produced since completion of the acquisition in March (7kt on a 100% basis)
Rio Tinto’s Project Updates
The company reported Pilbara Iron Ore replacement projects are progressing per plans. Western Range achieved first ore through the new crushing and conveying circuit. The remaining non-critical construction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025, with production to ramp-up through 2025. The Brockman Syncline 1 investment of $1.8 billion has been approved following receipt of all necessary approvals. First production is planned in 2027.
The development of the Simandou high-grade iron ore project is also progressing per schedule.
Rio Tinto has a strong portfolio of projects with activity in 17 countries across eight commodities in early exploration and studies stages. Bulk of the exploration expenditure is focused on copper in Angola, Chile, Colombia, Peru and the United States, lithium in Canada, Rwanda, Chile and Australia and diamonds in Angola.
RIO Stock's Price Performance
In the past year, shares of Rio Tinto have lost 14.3% compared with the industry’s 16% decline.
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RIO Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider
Rio Tinto currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks from the basic materials space are Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, Idaho Strategic Resources IDR and DRDGOLD Limited DRD. CRS sports a Zacks Ranks #1 (Strong Buy) while IDR and DRD have Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Carpenter Technology has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRS’ 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.95 per share. Carpenter Technology shares have surged 125% in the last year.
Idaho Strategic Resources has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 77.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IDR’s 2025 earnings is pegged at 78 cents per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 16.4%. Idaho Strategic shares have soared 99% in the last year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DRDGOLD’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.06 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 29.8%. DRDGOLD shares have jumped 94% in the last year.
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