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The first-quarter results for Canacol Energy Ltd (TSE:CNE) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$70m, statutory earnings beat expectations 4.6%, with Canacol Energy reporting profits of US$0.90 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Canacol Energy after the latest results.
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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from twin analysts covering Canacol Energy is for revenues of US$311.3m in 2025. This implies a definite 16% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Canacol Energy forecast to report a statutory profit of US$3.15 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$309.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.14 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
Check out our latest analysis for Canacol Energy
The consensus price target fell 14% to CA$4.00, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 20% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Canacol Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Canacol Energy following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Canacol Energy's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Canacol Energy's future valuation.