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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 6.0% to hit CN¥6.6b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at CN¥1.53, some 2.3% above whatthe analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)
Following the latest results, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s 19 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥30.9b in 2021. This would be a huge 30% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 3.3% to CN¥7.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥30.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥7.90 in 2021. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 7.7% to CN¥243, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ZTO Express (Cayman) at CN¥42.35 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥26.08. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Next year brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 30%, in line with its 26% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.3% per year. So although ZTO Express (Cayman) is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.