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Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. Having said that, from a first glance at Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Union Pacific is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.16 = US$9.7b ÷ (US$66b - US$6.2b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).
Therefore, Union Pacific has an ROCE of 16%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 14% generated by the Transportation industry.
See our latest analysis for Union Pacific
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Union Pacific compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Union Pacific here for free.
What Does the ROCE Trend For Union Pacific Tell Us?
There hasn't been much to report for Union Pacific's returns and its level of capital employed because both metrics have been steady for the past five years. This tells us the company isn't reinvesting in itself, so it's plausible that it's past the growth phase. So unless we see a substantial change at Union Pacific in terms of ROCE and additional investments being made, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that Union Pacific has been paying out a decent 43% of its earnings to shareholders. Unless businesses have highly compelling growth opportunities, they'll typically return some money to shareholders.
The Bottom Line On Union Pacific's ROCE
In a nutshell, Union Pacific has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. Since the stock has gained an impressive 54% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.