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Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after we looked into Gentrack Group (NZSE:GTK), the trends above didn't look too great.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Gentrack Group is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.05 = NZ$11m ÷ (NZ$266m - NZ$51m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
Thus, Gentrack Group has an ROCE of 5.0%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Software industry average of 9.8%.
See our latest analysis for Gentrack Group
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Gentrack Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Gentrack Group for free.
What Can We Tell From Gentrack Group's ROCE Trend?
In terms of Gentrack Group's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 9.1% that they were earning five years ago. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Gentrack Group to turn into a multi-bagger.
The Bottom Line On Gentrack Group's ROCE
In summary, it's unfortunate that Gentrack Group is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Yet despite these poor fundamentals, the stock has gained a huge 109% over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.
On a separate note, we've found 1 warning sign for Gentrack Group you'll probably want to know about.