Retail Stocks' Q2 Earnings Slated on Aug 1: TXRH, HVT, NLS

Nearly halfway into the second-quarter earnings season, it looks like we are set to witness the fifth straight quarter of year-over-year earnings decline. Nonetheless, the results reported so far depict a modest growth picture, especially when compared to the last two quarters.

Out of the 208 S&P 500 members that have come up with their quarterly numbers, approximately 73.1% have posted positive earnings surprises, while 51.9% surpassed top-line expectations – per the latest Zacks Earnings Trends report as of Jul 27, 2016. However, earnings for these companies are down 4.7% from the same period last year, while revenues have inched up 0.4%.

Taking a look at the future projections, among the 16 Zacks sectors which together decide the fate of the index, 10 are anticipated to post a year-over-year decline in earnings in the second quarter. Once again, Oil/Energy is expected to cause most of the damage, with Basic Materials, Aerospace and Transportation also being a drag.

Notably, the Retail/Wholesale sector seems to show some resilience despite challenges including overseas turmoil, yet-to-recover Chinese economy, fluctuating commodity prices and Fed rate-related controversies that are affecting consumers’ spending behavior to an extent. As of Jul 27, 29.5% of the total number of S&P 500 companies in this sector had reported their results, wherein 38.5% delivered an earnings beat and 15.4% cruised ahead of revenue estimates. However, the top and bottom lines declined 0.8% and 2.4% year over year, respectively.

Nonetheless, the story is not over yet as most retailers are yet to unveil their results. While total earnings for the Retail/Wholesale sector are expected to drop marginally by 0.2%, revenues are projected to increase 4.7% in Q2. So, let’s take a look at a few Retail/Wholesale stocks that are queued up for second-quarter 2016 earnings releases on Aug 1, 2016.

To start with Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TXRH, we are unsure whether this service restaurant chain will be able to post a positive earnings surprise in the quarter to be reported. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here as the company has an Earnings ESP of -2.27% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings is pegged at 44 cents, while the Most Accurate Estimate stands at 43 cents. Further, we note that in the trailing four quarters, the company has underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 4.2%.