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Retail sales rose less than expected in February and saw downward revisions for January amid fears the US economy may be growing slower than Wall Street initially thought to start 2025.
Headline retail sales rose 0.2% in February, less than the 0.6% increase economists had expected, according to Census Bureau data. Retail sales in January were revised lower to a decline of 1.2% from a prior reading that showed a 0.9% decrease in the month.
"We kind of bounced back from that low January, and we're right back where we were in December," Bank of America senior US economist Stephen Juneau told Yahoo Finance.
He added, "Until you see cracks on the labor market side, you're just not really going to see a big slowdown on the consumer overall."
The control group in Thursday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, rose 1%. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase. However, January's control group sales number was revised to a 1% decline, lower than initial 0.8% fall reported.
February sales, excluding auto and gas, rose 0.5%, above consensus estimates for a 0.4% increase.
"Although retail sales only edged up in February, the much larger rebound in control group sales — which feeds into the [Bureau of Economic Analysis] consumption estimate — is something of a relief," Capital Economics deputy chief North America economist Stephen Brown wrote in a note to clients. "Consumer spending is on track to slow sharply this quarter, but not by as much as we previously feared."
The February report comes amid a shifting narrative surrounding the US economy. January's retail sales reading marked the worst retail sales report in a year and was one of the first data points that kicked off the market's rerating of the US economy's growth outlook over the past month.
As economic forecasts have tumbled in recent weeks amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff policy, major stock indexes have sold off. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) entered Monday's trading session off more than 8% from its most recent record close on Feb. 19.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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