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As you might know, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ:PBYI) just kicked off its latest annual results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.9% to hit US$231m. Puma Biotechnology also reported a statutory profit of US$0.62, which was an impressive 106% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Puma Biotechnology after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Puma Biotechnology
Taking into account the latest results, the twin analysts covering Puma Biotechnology provided consensus estimates of US$218.2m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 5.3% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 35% to US$0.40 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$210.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.25 in 2025. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Puma Biotechnology's future following the latest results, with a sizeable expansion in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
Despite these upgrades, the consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$4.33, perhaps signalling that the uplift in performance is not expected to last.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Puma Biotechnology's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 5.3% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 1.8% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 20% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Puma Biotechnology to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Puma Biotechnology's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.