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Capital Power Corporation (TSE:CPX) just released its latest annual results and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of CA$3.7b, some 2.3% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at CA$5.15, 25% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Capital Power
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from seven analysts covering Capital Power is for revenues of CA$2.71b in 2025. This implies a stressful 26% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 51% to CA$2.34 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$2.69b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.45 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at CA$67.45, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Capital Power at CA$77.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$62.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Capital Power is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 26% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 21% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Capital Power is expected to lag the wider industry.