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It's been a pretty great week for BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$37.91 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$348m were what the analysts expected, BJ's Restaurants surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.58 per share, an impressive 48% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Following the latest results, BJ's Restaurants' eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.40b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 72% to US$1.73. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.73 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for BJ's Restaurants
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$40.50, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic BJ's Restaurants analyst has a price target of US$50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$33.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BJ's Restaurants' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.8% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BJ's Restaurants.