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Shareholders of Aurubis AG (ETR:NDA) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to €84.25 following its latest yearly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €17b were what the analysts expected, Aurubis surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of €9.53 per share, an impressive 22% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Aurubis
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Aurubis are now predicting revenues of €19.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 29% to €6.78 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €19.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.46 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Aurubis' earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at €71.90, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Aurubis analyst has a price target of €90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €56.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aurubis' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 1.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aurubis to grow faster than the wider industry.