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There's been a notable change in appetite for AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 12% to US$132. It looks like a pretty bad result, given that revenues fell 19% short of analyst estimates at US$168m, and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.06 per share instead of the profit that the analysts had been forecasting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for AeroVironment
After the latest results, the six analysts covering AeroVironment are now predicting revenues of US$933.9m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 211% to US$3.66. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$991.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.70 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 10% to US$204following these changes. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on AeroVironment, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$240 and the most bearish at US$146 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AeroVironment'shistorical trends, as the 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that AeroVironment is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.