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As you might know, Acadian Timber Corp. (TSE:ADN) recently reported its full-year numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CA$91m were what the analysts expected, Acadian Timber surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of CA$1.32 per share, an impressive 99% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Acadian Timber
Following the latest results, Acadian Timber's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of CA$93.1m in 2021. This would be a reasonable 2.2% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 20% to CA$1.06 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$93.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$1.06 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CA$16.90, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Acadian Timber at CA$18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$16.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Acadian Timber's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 2.2% increase next year well below the historical 4.2%p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 15% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Acadian Timber is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Acadian Timber's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$16.90, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.