It’s all bad news in the restaurant chain business

Olive Garden never-ending pasta passes have historically been a traffic driver
Olive Garden never-ending pasta passes have historically been a traffic driver

“To say that the bloom is off the fast casual rose is an understatement,” says Bernstein’s Sara Senatore. In other words, people are eating out less.

Industry comparable store sales continued their negative streak in the most recent quarter, and management teams are citing everything from US political uncertainty to terrorism for the decline—raising concerns about broader consumer spending patterns.

Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates, Knapp-Track, Blackbox Intelligence
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates, Knapp-Track, Blackbox Intelligence

And Cosi—a struggling player in the industry—filed for bankruptcy, also reflecting challenges.

Olive Garden parent Darden (DRI) said in its first quarter report on Tuesday that the industry was under pressure.

“We assume the industry is going to stay where the industry is going to stay,” Darden CEO Gene Lee said. “We’re not assuming the industry is going to get a whole lot better.”

And on Thursday, Yum Brands (YUM)—parent of Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut—also pointed to industry pressures, specifically competition and reiterated some competitive pressure as well, particularly with its Pizza Hut comparable store sales decline.

“The US market was influenced by an unsuccessful promotion and the competitive environment,” said CEO Greg Creed of the company’s weakest brand. YUM has aimed its value creation efforts on the spin-off of its China business, coming at the end of the month.

The pre-announcement from Sonic (SONC) in September set the tone of even worse-than-expected results to come.

“The shortfall was largely driven by lower-than-expected traffic, reflecting lower consumer spending in restaurants and continued aggressive competitive activity,” said CEO Cliff Hudson in the company’s press release.

These traffic issues come amid company-specific pressures at former industry leader Chipotle (CMG)—which accounted for 19% of industry sales in 2015. Chipotle saw comps decline nearly 27% in first half of the year.

What about the consumer?

So if all of these lackluster results tumble in, should we be worried about the consumer? Not necessarily. Factors working against the fast-casual dining and quick-serve companies may be industry-specific and not suggest underlying weakness for consumers, where strong data continues to be steady, according to Canaccord Genuity’s Lynn Collier.

“We believe the consumer overall is in decent shape given a strong housing market, improving employment and a rising stock market,” Collier wrote in a note.

Instead, a number of issues have had an outsized impact on the restaurant space.

Pricing

Commodity costs are down, making competition more fierce.

Specifically, the gap between “food at home” inflation and “food away from home” inflation has been increasing since the beginning of 2015, according to Collier, which has made the value proposition less attractive for restaurants.