(Bloomberg Opinion) -- A month before he ended his first stint as Japan’s prime minister in 2007, Shinzo Abe addressed the Indian Parliament in New Delhi. Quoting the Mughal scholar-prince Dara Shikoh, Abe spoke of the “confluence of the two seas” — the Indian and Pacific Oceans — that were undergoing a “dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity.” India and Japan, said Abe, shared an interest in and responsibility for securing these seas “by joining forces with like-minded countries.”
In the years since, it has become commonplace to speak of the “Indo-Pacific.” Abe’s vision, as expressed then, is now integral to how diplomats and politicians across Asia, Oceania and beyond have begun to think. No leader in recent memory has so completely and profoundly transformed strategic thinking in Asia.
This point should not be lost now that Abe is stepping down from a second spell as prime minister, the longest in Japan’s history. However sweeping the changes he instituted at home, his successors are likely to continue most of his domestic policies. Where Abe’s absence will be felt most keenly is in the region he transformed just as dramatically.
Asian democracies will have to hope that Japan continues down the path Abe laid out, for several reasons. First, they need the Japanese government to push its powerful corporations to think strategically about investing in countries such as India. Such jawboning makes a difference, especially during crises like the one the region is suffering at the moment.
As one researcher puts it, the government in Tokyo can nudge its companies into “uncharacteristically rapid” decisions when it comes to overseas investment. Japan’s pandemic stimulus package didn’t only include a subsidy for companies that considered reshoring their production; it earmarked a fraction of that money for those who wished to shift production from China to Southeast Asia. Such policy markers have an impact that dwarfs the actual sums of money involved.
Second, the countries of the Indo-Pacific need a self-confident Japan to continue to promote its values overseas. This is partly a question of sustaining a positive, liberal narrative that continues to stress the importance of open seas and open markets.
But it’s also about hard cash: Under the “Abe model,” Japan has invested strongly in the region’s infrastructure, both directly and through the Asian Development Bank. Many growth-hungry countries in Asia are struggling to attract Western finance and are concerned about the strings attached to Chinese investment. Japan’s huge pool of investible savings is central to their aspirations for development.