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When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. One great example is Reliance, Inc. (NYSE:RS) which saw its share price drive 154% higher over five years. On top of that, the share price is up 12% in about a quarter. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 13% in the last three months.
Although Reliance has shed US$912m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
See our latest analysis for Reliance
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, Reliance managed to grow its earnings per share at 16% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 21% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Reliance's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Reliance the TSR over the last 5 years was 178%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Reliance provided a TSR of 17% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 23% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Reliance (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.