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Are Regulators About to Let Another Bank Get Too Big to Fail?

The era of financial bubbles and crises has been defined by banking industry consolidation. According to the FDIC, there are now 6,618 deposit-taking institutions in America, down from 15,158 in 1990.

Change is constant, and the U.S. still has many more banks than its counterparts in Europe, but from the one-upmanship of the go-go bubble era (Fleet, First Union) to the shotgun weddings of the post-crisis period (Wachovia, Washington Mutual), mergers have created a financial system dominated by a handful of giant, complex firms.

Related: Finally! Big Investors Declare War Against Big Banks

This pace of consolidation has slowed down in recent years. But now, federal regulators, reeling from accusations about their light touch on Wall Street, must decide whether to approve a merger that could restart the drive for big banks to get even bigger.

In July, CIT Bank announced a $3.4 billion deal to merge with OneWest, the largest bank merger since Capital One’s $9 billion purchase of ING Direct in 2011. The merger would give CIT roughly $67 billion in assets, crossing the $50 billion threshold for a “systemically significant” institution, which triggers additional regulatory scrutiny. The deal has generally been praised by analysts. “Bankers may be ready to believe in themselves again,” gushed Crain’s New York.

Echoes of the financial crisis reverberate on all sides. CIT, mostly a small-business and commercial real estate lender, was on the verge of collapse in 2009 when it got over-extended with bad mortgage lending and credit markets tightened. The bank received $2.3 billion in TARP funds, but the government rejected a bigger lifeline, and soon after, the bank fell into bankruptcy, the fifth largest in U.S. history.

The bankruptcy wiped out preferred stock from the TARP deal, and CIT never repaid the government. But it emerged from bankruptcy with a new CEO, John Thain, the notorious former head of Merrill Lynch who was ousted during the crisis for, among other things, a million-dollar re-decoration of his office, complete with a $35,000 commode.

CIT, newly free from Federal Reserve restrictions on its operations, now wants to buy OneWest, itself a crisis-era construct. OneWest rose from the ashes of IndyMac, the Los Angeles-area savings and loan, which spectacularly failed in July 2008 under the weight of too many risky mortgages. A consortium of Wall Street tycoons, led by hedge funders George Soros and John Paulson and several former Goldman Sachs executives, bought IndyMac’s assets from the FDIC for $1.55 billion in 2009. The consortium stands to double their money in the merger.