Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) shareholders have endured a 62% loss from investing in the stock three years ago
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Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) shareholders. Unfortunately, they have held through a 66% decline in the share price in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 29%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Regis Resources
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Regis Resources saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 62% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 30% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines. With a P/E ratio of 86.07, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Regis Resources' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Regis Resources, it has a TSR of -62% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 4.5% in the twelve months, Regis Resources shareholders did even worse, losing 28% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Regis Resources you should know about.