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Redwire Corporation (NYSE:RDW) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like weak result overall, with ongoing losses and revenues of US$61m falling short of analyst predictions. The losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share (statutory) loss of US$0.09 being 74% smaller than what the analysts had presumed. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Redwire's five analysts is for revenues of US$461.0m in 2025. This reflects a major 66% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 98% to US$0.03. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$431.1m and losses of US$0.72 per share in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very favorable reduction to loss per share in particular.
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Yet despite these upgrades, the analysts cut their price target 8.5% to US$23.60, implicitly signalling that the ongoing losses are likely to weigh negatively on Redwire's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Redwire analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$19.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Redwire's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 97% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 28% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Redwire to grow faster than the wider industry.