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Scinai Immunotherapeutics Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:SCNI) stock performed strongly after the recent earnings report. However, we think that investors should be cautious when interpreting the profit numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Scinai Immunotherapeutics
Zooming In On Scinai Immunotherapeutics' Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to September 2024, Scinai Immunotherapeutics had an accrual ratio of 1.22. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$6.7m despite its profit of US$4.70m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of US$6.7m, this year, indicates high risk. Unfortunately for shareholders, the company has also been issuing new shares, diluting their share of future earnings.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Scinai Immunotherapeutics.
One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. Scinai Immunotherapeutics expanded the number of shares on issue by 96% over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of Scinai Immunotherapeutics' EPS by clicking here.
A Look At The Impact Of Scinai Immunotherapeutics' Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Scinai Immunotherapeutics was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is having a rather significant impact on shareholders.